WikiLeaks cables reveal that while Aung San Suu Kyi remains popular, there is frustration in the country with the 'sclerotic leadership' of her National League for Democracy. Photograph: Nyein Chan Naing/EPA
The Chinese government, Burma's closest ally, is losing patience with the military regime over its failure to implement political and other reforms, according to leaked US diplomatic cables.
A Beijing diplomat complained China is "fed up with the footdragging" of Burma's strongman, General Than Shwe, and his inner circle, one of the cables, released by WikiLeaks, reported.
China, in spite of its closeness to the Burmese dictatorship, shares the same concerns as the US about the country's instability and is keen to work with Washington in promoting change, according to American diplomats.
The Chinese stance on Burma echoes that towards North Korea revealed in other cables: publicly supportive while privately despairing.
Burma has for decades been treated by the US and others in the west as an international pariah, a military dictatorship castigated for brutal crackdowns on pro-democracy activists. Although the Burmese government held elections on 7 November, these were denounced by the west as a fraud and were boycotted by the National League for Democracy (NLD), the biggest opposition party, headed by the recently-released Aung San Suu Kyi.
In a 2008 cable marked "China Losing Patience With Burma", the senior US diplomat in Burma at the time, Shari Villarosa, described a lunch with the Chinese ambassador, Guan Mu, and said the Chinese were worried about political turmoil that could affect their business interests.
Villarosa said: "The Chinese ambassador no longer tried to defend the regime, and acknowledged that the generals had made a bad situation worse. The Chinese have used their access to the generals to push for change, without much observable result, but remain interested in working with us to promote change."
She added: "The Chinese can no longer rely on the generals to protect their interests here, and recognise the need to broker some solution that keeps the peace, including bringing in the pro-democracy supporters."
Guan said that if senior leaders in Burma could be offered assurances they would not lose their lives and keep their economic interests, they might be more amenable to ceding power gradually.
US diplomats in Beijing in 2008 found similar sentiments expressed by the Chinese foreign affairs ministry.
Although the US champions the Burmese opposition, its diplomats in Burma are scathing of the leading group, the NLD, fronted by Aung San Suu Kyi. A US cable said that while she remains popular, there is frustration in the country with "the sclerotic leadership of elderly NLD 'uncles'."
The cable adds that the way the leadership runs the NLD "indicates the party is not the last great hope for democracy and Burma. The party is strictly hierarchical, new ideas are not solicited or encouraged from younger members, and the 'uncles' regularly expel members they believe are 'too active'."
The cable adds that lack of unity among the pro-democracy opposition is one of the biggest obstacles to change in Burma.
The party has not made any effort "to join forces with the technically sophisticated bloggers and young, internet-savvy activists, who have been so clever at getting out the images which repeatedly damaged the regime and undermined its international credibility."
The US was also disappointed with the UN special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari and the cables reveal how the then US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, ordered the US mission at the UN to work for his removal. In a 2008 cable that reflects the way the US seeks to exert control over the UN, Rice wrote: "Considering the key role of the good offices mission and Gambari's inability to secure significant progress from the Burmese regime, USUN (the US mission at the UN) is asked to demarche SYG (UN secretary general) Ban or Ambassador Kim (Ban's chief of staff) to seek Gambari's dismissal as SRSG (special representatives of the secretary general) for Burma. This demarche should occur as soon as practical."
Rice, noting Ban's "likely sensitivities in regard to a possible dismissal", suggested several talking points, among them that Gambari was failing to acknowledge the intransigence of the Burmese government.
"We have no wish to embarrass Mr Gambari and have no intent to link any removal with a lack of progress in Burma, but we would ask that you find a way to terminate gracefully his participation in this particular mission," Rice wrote.
Gambari was moved by Ban last year.
The Obama administration approach to Burma is not markedly different from that of the Bush administration, basically trying to nudge the regime towards reform through a mixture of sanctions and offers of sweeteners.
The present US charge d'affaires, Larry Dinger, in a cable in April last year, proposed various ways of improving ties with Burma, including aid, which he cynically suggested could undermine the regime.
"If properly designed, such assistance builds the basic capacity of people at the grassroots to survive and to think beyond mere subsistence to political goals. Such aid is subversive more directly as well: recipients understand who helps them (international donors) and who doesn't (the regime)," Dinger said.
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